Was die Brexit-Diskussion überdeckt

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In den letzten Tagen sind die Kurse an den europäischen Aktienmärkten unter Druck gekommen. Nicht ganz überraschend, denn wie wir in unserer Investmentmeinung am Montag ausgeführt haben, ist zu erwarten, dass Anleger sich gegen eine negative Überraschung aus einem möglichen Brexit absichern (müssen). Doch unseres Erachtens erscheint es fraglich, ob man alles auf den Brexit schieben sollte. Denn es laufen parallel auch noch andere Prozesse.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 22-2016

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Was bedeutet der Brexit für das Portfolio?

Nur noch knapp drei Wochen, dann wissen wir, ob das Vereinigte Königreich die Europäische Union verlassen will oder nicht. Derzeit zeichnen die Umfragen noch kein klares Bild. Unter Risikogesichtspunkten kann man dieses Datum jedoch nicht einfach verdrängen. Was bedeutet ein Brexit für die Anleger und welche Handlungsoptionen haben diese?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 22-2016

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EZ economic expectations favouring equities over bonds

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Index has reached +9.9, its highest level this year. The improvement in eurozone economic expectations (with the sentix index also hitting a 2016 high) can also be seen in investors’ views on markets. For one thing, economics is seen as becoming a more bearish than bullish theme for eurozone bonds. For another, improving economic expectations chime with the recent turnaround in investors’ strategic bias towards equities (based on the EuroSTOXX Index) versus bonds (based on Bunds). EZ economic expectations are consistent with investors’ more constructive mediumterm views on equities versus bonds (see Page 2 for charts).

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Eurozone aggregate climbs to new high

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June’s economic expectation figures end a sluggish spring quarter. The Eurozone aggregate rises by +3.7 points to the highest value since last December. Besides, investors’ expectations over the next six-month soar by +5.5 points to +10 points. The June readings further demonstrate that other world regions can gain along with the development in central Europe. Investors are especially delighted by the progress of the US economy. The overall index climbs +6.2 points. On the US economy’s coat-tails is the economy of Asia which signals signs of improvement in comparison the previous quarter. Accordingly, the sentix global aggregate index strengthens by +4.1 points and marks the highest reading since last December.

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Investors underestimate the “Brexit” risk

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for may reflects improvements within the euro zone. Based on declining stress levels in the euro-periphery investors perceive the odds continue to shift in favour for the cohesion of the single currency area. However, a potential “Brexit” would cause significant turmoil.

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