sentix ASR Essentials 46-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Ties that bind EM and Commodity sentiment loosen

The fallout from the US election result continues to overhang market sentiment. In equities, the latest sentix survey points to a sharp downward reversal in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone equities relative to the US, perhaps reflecting an underlying change in relative economic expectations. At the same time, the latest monthly sentiment readings on emerging market (EM) equities as an asset class have also sharply fallen, in a development that chimes with increased optimism on the outlook for the US Dollar. It is less consistent with commodity sentiment that has only modestly weakened from the levels of a month ago. It appears that the close ties between EM and commodity sentiment have been loosened near-term by the outcome of the US election (Charts 2-4, p2).

Click here for the full report

Mehr Katalysator als Initiator

Written by Manfred Hübner | 15 November 2016
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

There are no translations available.

"Menschen machen Märkte" - Und vielleicht ist dies der Grund dafür, dass Märkte auch "grausam" sein können. Das All time-High im vielbeachteten Dow Jones Index - dem Kursbarometer in der Welt - als Reaktion auf die Wahl Donald Trumps zum nächsten US-Präsidenten, mag sicherlich für viele Beobachter so wirken. Börsianer entdecken darin jedoch Botschaften!

Die nachfolgende Betrachtung stellt eine persönliche Einschätzung des Wahlausgangs durch den Autor unter dem Blickwinkel der Behavioral Finance, der verhaltensorientierten Kapitalmarktanalyse, dar.

Party on Wall Street

Written by Julien Mueller | 14 November 2016
Posted in Special research

Investors celebrate the surprising outcome of the US election. Investors’ sentiment for the US equity market has reached the highest level since 2010. In the past, comparable sentiment levels indicated that the US market is temporarily overbought.

sentix Investmentmeinung 45-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Kurzfristige Euphorie erzwingt eine Handlung

Nach dem Wahlsieg Trumps kommen die Märkte in Bewegung. Vor allem US-Aktien sind die Gewinner, aber auch japanische Aktien profitieren über den festen US-Dollar. Auf der anderen Seite verlieren Emerging Markets und Renten und in Europa ziert sich der Markt noch, eine bullische oder bearische Entscheidung zu vollziehen. Wir orientieren uns an unseren Daten und diese legen verschiedene Handlungen nahe.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Deutsche Aktien, Euroland Aktien, Chinesische Aktien, Rohöl

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 45-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bonds sentiment bashed; Banks and Healthcare sentiment boosted

The US election result has cast a shadow across the latest sentix survey. At an asset level, pessimism has grown more notable on bonds, with readings on bunds sentiment becoming even more deeply entrenched at the low end of the historic sentiment range (see Chart 8, page 4). In terms of opinions on the US, the gap between investors’ strategic bias on the S&P 500 versus US 10Y Treasuries has also sharply increased. Bond sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic has been a notable casualty from the unexpected US election result. In a European equity context, the big winners have been Banks and Healthcare, where sentiment has markedly improved over the past month relative to the market. See page 2 for charts.